Global

FOCUS | GLOBAL Please refer to important information at the end of this 9 April 2020 report MARKET ECONOMICS | EM ECONOMICS Global growth outlook darkens further Change for the worse in assumptions: We have KEY MESSAGES revised down our global growth... More

FOCUS | GLOBAL Please refer to important information at the end of this 9 April 2020 report MARKET ECONOMICS | EM ECONOMICS Global growth outlook darkens further Change for the worse in assumptions: We have KEY MESSAGES revised down our global growth forecasts further to A change for the worse in some of our assumptions reflect likely longer imposition of ‘social distancing’ around the Covid-19 shock has prompted us to cut our measures and slower recovery in economic activity already low GDP growth forecasts across the board. thereafter than we had initially assumed. We also see Even with the 2020 global growth forecast revised to greater chances of long-lasting effects as the economy’s −2.5% from 0.5%, the risks to our base case remain supply capacity is permanently impaired. skewed to the downside. Cut to growth forecasts: We now expect global GDP to The measures announced so far to combat the effects contract by 2.5% this year (previously 0.5% growth) of the pandemic will have to be Less