On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks Samuel V. Scarpino1,2,3,4,5†,* and Giovanni Petri5,6,†,** 1 Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 2 Marine & Environmental Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston,...
More
On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks Samuel V. Scarpino1,2,3,4,5†,* and Giovanni Petri5,6,†,** 1 Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 2 Marine & Environmental Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 3 Physics, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 4 Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 5 ISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy arXiv:1703.07317v6 [physics.soc-ph] 10 Oct 2018 6 ISI Global Science Foundation, New York, NY 10018, USA † Both authors contributed equally to this work. * s.scarpino@northeastern.edu ** giovanni.petri@isi.it Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predict- ing when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex systems ap- proach to modeling. Recent studies have demonstrated that predicting different com- ponents of outbreaks–e
Less
